Quantitative analysis of 2013–2014 revolutionary wave


Korotayev A.V.

Dr. Sci. (Hist.), Prof., Head of Laboratory for Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks Monitoring, National Research University Higher School of Economics; Leading Researcher, Institute of Oriental Studies of RAS, Moscow, Russia akorotaev@hse.ru

Isaev L.M.

Cand. Sci. (Polit.), Assoc. Prof., Saint Petersburg School of Social Science and Aria Studies, National Research University Higher School of Economics in St. Petersburg; Vice-Head of Laboratory for Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks Monitoring, National Research University Higher School of Economic; Research Fellow, Institute for African Studies of RAS, Moscow, Russia lisaev@hse.ru

Vasiliev А.М.

Institute of Africa, Russian academy of sciences, Moscow, Russia dir@inafr.ru

ID of the Article: 5621


For citation:

Korotayev A.V., Isaev L.M., Vasiliev А.М. Quantitative analysis of 2013–2014 revolutionary wave. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 2015. No 8. P. 119-127




Abstract

The world has met with a new rather weak (although special enough) revolutionary wave in 2013–2014. Splash of protests in Cairo, Kiev and Bangkok led to regimes’ fall (with direct involvement of the military in the first and third cases). Waves of protests in Tunisia, Caracas, Istanbul-Ankara and Saraevo seriously challenged respective regimes not toppling them. The paper discusses common traits of these destabilizing waves occurring though synchronously in Venezuela, Ukraine, Thailand.


Keywords
political regimes; center’s collapse; risks of socio-political destabilization; modernization processes; elections; сapital city
Content No 8, 2015