Scenario thinking in the context of sociological diagnostics


Volkov Yu.G.

Dr.Sci.(Philos.), Scientific Adviser of the Institute of Sociology and Area of the Southern Federal University, Director of the South Russian branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of RAS, Rostovon-Don, Russia infoippk@sfedu.ru

ID of the Article: 6390


For citation:

Volkov Yu.G. Scenario thinking in the context of sociological diagnostics. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 2016. No 10. P. 13-20




Abstract

In the article the scenario thinking as a way of social forecasting is discussed in the context of social diagnostics. Deficiency of scenario thinking in Russian society impacts negatively the quality of management decisions and dynamics of public moods, while sociological diagnostics increases reliability and validity of the findings simulating future on the basis of monitoring the state of the phenomena and processes under study. Sociological diagnostics demonstrates cognitive potential of scenario thinking as a sociological imagination tool for learning and assessing processes in Russian society. This mechanism fills gaps associated with inconsistency of the obtained results for diagnostics. Sociological diagnostics contains a set of analytical procedures describing current state of the diagnosed object, identifies prospects for development and transition to a different qualitative level: modification and transformation. Outside the sociological diagnostics there are certain fields of social tensions, possible transition from the state of social apathy or negative mobilization to the scenario of crisis. As part of the sociological diagnostics we should consider actual social situation as a situation of multiple alternatives containing the possibility of positive change and covering all aspects of social life, or deeper crisis characterized by the fatalism stance.


Keywords
sociological diagnosis; scenario thinking; retro-activism; public moods; images of the future; modeling the future
Content No 10, 2016