A study of Moscow electoral statistics (voting results)


Podlazov A.V.

Cand. Sci (physic. and mathem.), Senior researcher, RAS Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, Moscow, Russia Tiger@Keldysh.ru

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For citation:

Podlazov A.V. A study of Moscow electoral statistics (voting results). Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 2014. No 6. P. 77-88




Abstract

Author examines official results of the regional and Federal elections held in Moscow from 1999 to 2013. Basing on assumed high social homogeneity of the areas he proposes statistical criteria to compare their reliability. Discrepancy between the results recorded by observers with official data is explained. Maximum possible size of the hypothetical fraud is assessed, as well as the role of the educational level of the population as main social determinants of Muscovites support for opposition candidates in 2012 and 2013 The problem of partial reconstruction of the results of elections 2011 is resolved. Volume of fraud of various types is calculated.


Keywords
elections; inverse problems; fraud; election statistics; level of education
Content No 6, 2014