Risk assessment of tourism industry
N.T. Lobachevski Nizhniy Novgorod State University, Nizhniy Novgorod, Russia firstname.lastname@example.org
The subject of the research is risk factors of tourist arrivals, specificity of their recording and modeling. Methods of statistical observation and sociological analysis were used. The paper summarizes data of statistical forms and shows positive and negative trends in the development of tourism in Russia. It is concluded that the tourist industry in Russia is focused on outbound tourism rather than on inbound or internal one. A method for determination of integral indicator of tourism risks is proposed – system of risk factors provided in the form of estimated consumers of tourism services. A special scale to measure the risk is offered. This scale was constructed in such a way that highest risk was the top score. Database is from two sample surveys in 2008 and 2014. Data were processed in such a way that the total risk was received in comparison to the tourist regions and types of tourism. On the basis of survey data we assessed force of the influence of risks on touring Russian citizens. In assessing the type of tourism, the highest risk level has event tourism, and in assessing the geographical – European tourism product. Major risk factors impeding comfortable rest of Russian citizens are long hours of flight delays.