Identification and management of population reproduction

Tikhomirov N.P.

G.V. Plekhanov Russian Economics University, Moscow, Russia,

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Tikhomirov N.P. Identification and management of population reproduction. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 2016. No 6. P. 41-48


The articles focuses on approaches to indicate quality of the reproduction mode (to identify the degree of depopulation or growth) based on estimates of its generalized indicators (maximum growth rate and net reproduction rate) which are calculated using only age-specific birth and death rates and therefore are independent from the movements of demographic waves. The article highlights advantages of these indicators and compares them with an estimated contribution of age-specific changes to the population growth in its natural movement. The indicators are compared with estimated changes in the age structure received through an index method by using a standardized population age structure. The article also points out the impact of demographic waves on generalized rates of birth, death and actual population growth in Russia after 2000.The use of official statistics on age-specific birth and death has allowed to obtain annual estimates and identify variability trends for the population maximum growth rate in the Russian Federation and its regions in 1960–2013. The article proves that living standards and actions to stimulate birth rates and decrease death rates impact these trends.The article reveals identical nature of variability of the maximum pace of the population growth in Russia and its administrative units in the period under review, taking into consideration regional differences in this indicator. Regional population structure impacts the maximum pace of the population growth. An analytic formula is offered linking the increase in the population growth rate to the increase of age-specific birth and death (survival) indices. This formula has allowed to obtain elasticity coefficients of the maximum growth rate applied to changes in the age-specific birth and death indices as well as to establish a correlation between these elasticity coefficients. Based on the elasticity coefficients of the maximum growth rate applied to changes in the agespecific birth and death indices, the articles analyzes possible effectiveness of a population policy aimed at overcoming depopulation in the country and optimizing control of the population reproduction mode.

population reproduction mode; natural movement; birth and death indices; growth rate; population structure; demographic waves
Content No 6, 2016