Assessment of the Real Rates of Homicides and Suicides in the Regions of Russia

Assessment of the Real Rates of Homicides and Suicides in the Regions of Russia


Yumaguzin V.V.

Cand. Sci. (Sociol), Senior lecturer, Junior researcher, Institute of demography, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia vyumaguzin@hse.ru

Vinnik M.V.

Master degree in Sociology, Lecturer, Junior researcher, Institute of demography, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia mvinnik@hse.ru

ID of the Article:


The research was supported by NRU HSE Program of fundamental research in 2018.


For citation:

Yumaguzin V.V., Vinnik M.V. Assessment of the Real Rates of Homicides and Suicides in the Regions of Russia. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 2019. No 1. P. 116-126




Abstract

The mortality rates from homicides and suicides, which serve as an indicator of the psychological well-being and the value of life in society, show a steady decline after the 2000s in Russia. However, another block of causes of death, event of undetermined intent shows the same rapid growth and since 2014 already exceeds the cumulative death rate from homicides and suicides. Researchers believe this block of causes is a reservoir of latent homicides and suicides. As a result, actual data on homicides and suicides are underestimated. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that regional practices of coding the causes of death can largely deform the structure of mortality, which is why the ordinary proportional redistribution of event of undetermined intent within the class “External causes of morbidity and mortality” ICD-10 is not enough. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the actual death rates from homicides and suicides using a model region in which the proportion of event of undetermined intent is minimal. Three options for solving this problem are proposed. The suicide rate increased by 30% regardless of the hypothesis. At the same time, the level of homicides and accidents increased most significantly under the third hypothesis, when all cases of events of undetermined intent were redistributed – there was an increase of 30% compared to 15–20% for the first hypothesis. Assessment for regions, depending on the accepted hypothesis of redistribution of events of undetermined intent, showed differences, demonstrating an underestimation of specific causes of death. In some regions, ill-defined causes are used mainly to hide deaths from suicide (for example, Astrakhan, Samara, Sakhalin and Samara regions, as well as Tuva), and in other regions to conceal homicides (Orel and Vologda regions, Bashkortostan).


Keywords
demography; mortality from external causes; homicides; suicides; injuries with undetermined intent; data reconstruction

References

Andreev E. (2016) Ill-defined and Unspecified Causes of Death in Russia. Demograficheskoye obozreniye [Demographic Review]. Vol. 3. No. 2: 103–142. (In Russ.)

Andreev E.M., Shkolnikov V., Pridemore W.A., Nikitina S.Yu. (2015) A Method for Reclassifying Cause of Death in Cases Categorized as “Event of Undetermined Intent”. Population Health Metrics. Vol. 13. No. 23: 1–25.

Antonova O.I. (2007) Regional Features of Mortality of the Population of Russia from External Causes. Dis. Cand. econ. sci. Moscow: 208. (In Russ.)

Danilova I.A. (2014) Old-age Mortality from External Causes of Death in Russia. Demograficheskoye obozreniye [Demographic Review]. No. 2: 57–84. (In Russ.)

Gavrilova N.S., Semyonova V.G., Dubrovina E. et al. (2008) Russian Mortality Crisis and the Quality of Vital Statistics. Popul Res Policy Rev. No. 27: 551.

Ivanova A.E., Sabgayda T.P., Semenova V.G., Zaporozhchenko V.G., Zemlyanova E.V., Nikitina S.Yu. (2013) Factors of Distortion of Structure of Causes of Death of Able-bodied Population of Russia. Sotsial'nye aspekty zdorov'ya naseleniya [Social Aspects of Health of the Population]. No. 4 (32). URL: http://vestnik.mednet.ru/content/view/491/30 (accessed 15.05.2018). (In Russ.)

Kvasha E.A., Kharkova T.L., Yumaguzin V.V. (2014) Mortality from External Causes of Death in Russia over the Past Half-century. Demograficheskoye obozreniye [Demographic Review]. Vol. 1. No. 4: 68–95. (In Russ.)

Semenova V.G., Nikitina S.Yu., Gavrilova N.S., Zaporozhchenko V.G. (2017) The Problems of Registration of Death Because of External Causes. Zdravookhraneniye Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Health Care of the Russian Federation]. Vol. 61. No. 4: 202–212. (In Russ.)

Mortality from External Causes in Russia Since the Middle of the XX Century. (2017) Ed. by A.G. Vishnevsky. Moscow: NIU VShE. (In Russ.)

Vasin S. (2015) Mortality from Undetermined Causes of Death in Russia and in a Selected Set of Countries. Demograficheskoye obozreniye [Demographic Review]. No. 2 (1): 89–124. (In Russ.)

Yumaguzin V.V. (2017) Mortality from Event of Undetermined Intent as an Indicator of the Quality of Mortality Statistics from External Causes. Aist na kryshe. Demograficheskiy zhurnal [Stork on the Roof. Demographic Journal]. No. 5: 40–47. (In Russ.)

Yumaguzin V.V., Vinnik M.V. (2017) Assessing Data on Mortality from External Causes: Case Study of the Republic of Bashkortostan. Studies on Russian Economic Development. Vol. 28. No. 1: 97–109.

Yumaguzin V.V., Vinnik M.V. (2017) The Problems of Statistical Registration of Mortality Because of External Causes in Russia. Problemy sotsial'noy gigiyeny, zdravookhraneniya i istorii meditsiny [Problems of Social Hygiene, Public Health and History of Medicine]. No. 5: 265–269. (In Russ.)

Content No 1, 2019