Soft Power Priority in Destabilizing Contemporary Socium (the Case of the Republic of Belarus)


Danilov А.N.

Corresponding member of National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Dr. Sci. (Sociology), Prof., Head of the Department of Sociology, Belarusian State University, Minsk, Belarus a.danilov@tut.by

Rotman D.G.

Dr. Sci. (Sociol.), Prof., Director of the Center for Sociological and Political Research of Belarusian State University, Minsk, the Republic of Belarus dgrotman@rambler.ru

DOI: 10.31857/S013216250004010-4
ID of the Article:


For citation:

Danilov А.N., Rotman D.G. Soft Power Priority in Destabilizing Contemporary Socium (the Case of the Republic of Belarus) . Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 2019. No 2. P. 68-77




Abstract

The article deals with the destabilizing factors in the post-Soviet countries that can lead to new revolutions and coups d’état. It is proved that traditional methods of pressure of subjects of geopolitics on the concrete state underwent essential changes. Conventional forms of pressure (economic blackmail, declaration of war, severance of diplomatic relations, trade embargo, pressure through international organizations, etc.) are replaced by technologies of destabilization of political regimes, manipulation of mass consciousness and information wars. The directions of the accentuated negative impact are values, beliefs, culture, behavioral attitudes, and life strategies. Focus of pressure is switched to mass consciousness and value orientations, the process of transformation from institutional forms of accentuated pressure to the technologization of external influence. The author presents the scheme of social and political states of societies from increasing social discomfort to the situation of social stability. “Frozen stability” can also develop into a phenomenon called “stagnation”, further to the collapse of the economy, the deterioration of living conditions of people and as a result, to active protest actions. The situation on the eve of the collapse of the Soviet Union, which is a classic example of the destabilization of the state, is analyzed. Due to system errors in management, the authorities’ lack of professionalism, the conditions for activating of a self-destruction mechanism of the state were created. Accounting for the phenomenon of destabilization, it is revealed that the bifurcation point of a conflict process is the existence of certain factors that, through the application of specific technologies, pass from a latent state to an open one. Economic problems determine emergence of conflict situations. At the same time, it is impossible not to pay attention to the cultural, political and other specific historical features of each country, as well as mistakes made by the government. Measures of anticipation and prompt response to threats of destabilization of the society are suggested. The authors suggest an effective state development model that is capable at an early stage of blocking all emerging threats, which includes building a strong administrative vertical, socially oriented direction of reforms, forming an ideology of national unity that takes into account historical experience, national peculiarities and traditions of the peoples living on its territory.


Keywords
post-Soviet countries; destabilizing factors; socio-political pressure; monitoring of sociopolitical situation; measures of anticipation and prompt response against the threats of destabilization of society

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Content No 2, 2019