Reability of Public Opinion Polls in China

Reability of Public Opinion Polls in China


Li Qin

Cand. Sci. (Philol.), Senior Lecturer, Institute of Foreign Languages, Southeast University, Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, PRC chineseli@mail.ru

Babich N.S.

Cand. Sci. (Sociol.), Senior Research Fellow, Institute of Sociology of FCTAS RAS; Associate Prof. at the Department of Sociology, RUDN University, Moscow, Russia sociolog@mail.ru

ID of the Article:


Co-author of this article Li Qin was supported by Fundamental Research Funds for Chinese Central Universities (Project No. 2242020S20050 and Project No. 2242020R10030) and Jiangsu Province Project ”Double Creative PhD“ (JSSCBS202030305).


For citation:

Li Qin, Babich N.S. Reability of Public Opinion Polls in China. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 2023. No 3. P. 26-31




Abstract

The current international situation has increased importance of analyzing public opinion in the PRC. But the specificity of Chinese society allows critics of the PRC to put forward arguments (lack of “democratic public”, self-censorship of respondents, suspicions regarding political censorship, non-representative samples) against such an enterprise. This article systematically examines and refutes these arguments. The undertaken analysis shows that they are either easily overcome, since they are based on fragmentary data, or, with no less reason, should be addressed to all studies of public opinion in the world. This makes it possible to rely on polling data in the PRC and analyze public opinion trends with their help, although such an analysis should take into account likelihood of self-censorship of respondents, common for any society, and the fact that most samples in China represent, first of all, the most active urban population.


Keywords
public opinion; PRC; self-censorship; reliability of surveys; samples representativity

References

Бурдье П. Социология политики. М.: Socio-Logos, 1993. [Bourdieu P. (1993) Political sociology. Moscow: Socio-Logos. (In Russ.)]

Грушин Б.А. Четыре жизни России в зеркале опросов общественного мнения. Жизнь 1-я. М.: Прогресс-Традиция, 2001. [Grushin B.A. (2001) Four lives of Russia in the mirror of opinion polls. 1st life. Moscow: Progress-Tradicia. (In Russ.)]

Цзэ-дун М. Избранные произведения в 5 т. Т. III. Пекин: Изд-во лит-ры на иностр. яз., 1969. [Ze-dong M. (1969) Selected works in 5 vol. Vol. III. Beijing: Izd-vo lit-ry na inostr. yaz. (In Russ.)]

Bricker D. (2021) Ipsos World Affairs. URL: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/ documents/2021-11/World-Affairs-Global-Survey-2021-Halifax-Security-Forum.pdf (accessed 10.12.22).

Cho H. (2000) Public opinion as personal cultivation: A normative notion and a source of social control in traditional China. International Journal of Public Opinion Research. No. 3: 299–323. DOI: 10.1093/ ijpor/12.3.299.

Chubb A. (2019) Assessing public opinion’s influence on foreign policy: the case of China’s assertive maritime behavior. Asian Security. No. 2: 159–179. DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2018.1437723.

Genron NPO. (2021) Japan-China Public Opinion Survey 2021. URL: https://www.genron-npo.net/en/pp/ docs/211025.pdf (accessed 10.12.22).

Huang H., Intawan C., Nicholson S.P. (2022) In Government We Trust: Implicit Political Trust and Regime Support in China. Perspectives on Politics. First view. 1–19. DOI: 10.1017/S1537592722001037.

Keeter S. (2017) The Impact of Survey Non-response on Survey Accuracy. In: D. L. Vannette, J.A. Krosnick (eds). The Palgrave Handbook of Survey Research. New York: Springer. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-54395-6_47.

Lei X., Lu J. (2017) Revisiting political wariness in China’s public opinion surveys: Experimental evidence on responses to politically sensitive questions. Journal of Contemporary China. No. 104: 213–232. DOI: 10.1080/10670564.2016.1223104.

Neuman W.L. (2012) Designing the Face-to-Face Survey. In: L. Gideon (ed.). Handbook of Survey Methodology for the Social Sciences. New York: Springer.

Ouyang Z., Chen S., Lai Y., Yang X. (2022) The correlations among COVID-19, the effect of public opinion, and the systemic risks of China’s financial industries. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications. Vol. 600(c): 127–518. DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2022.127518.

Pan J., Xu Y. (2018) China’s ideological spectrum. The Journal of Politics. No. 1: 254–273. DOI: 10.1086/694255.

Perrin A.J., McFarland K. (2011) Social Theory and Public Opinion. Annual Review of Sociology. Vol. 37: 87–107. DOI: 10.1146/annurev.soc.012809.102659.

Pew Research Center. (2012) Growing Concerns in China about Inequality, Corruption. URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2012/10/Pew-Global-Attitudes-China-ReportFINAL-October-10–2012.pdf (accessed 10.12.22).

Pew Research Center. (2022) Country Specific Methodology. URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/ interactives/international-methodology/all-survey/china/all-year/ (accessed 10.12.22).

Ratigan K., Rabin L. (2020) Re-evaluating political trust: The impact of survey nonresponse in rural China. The China Quarterly. Vol. 243: 823–838. DOI: 10.1017/S0305741019001231.

Robinson D., Tannenberg M. (2019) Self-censorship of regime support in authoritarian states: Evidence from list experiments in China. Research & Politics. No. 3: 1–9. DOI: 10.1177/2053168019856449.

Shen X., Truex R. (2021) In search of self-censorship. British Journal of Political Science. No. 4: 1672–1684.

Shirk S.L. (2008) China: Fragile Superpower. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Song Y., Lu Y., Chang T.K., Huang Y. (2016) Polls in an authoritarian space: reporting and representing public opinion in China. Asian Journal of Communication. No. 4: 339–356. DOI: 10.1080/01292986.2016.1261362.

Stockmann D., Esarey A., Zhang J. (2018) Who is afraid of the Chinese state? Evidence calling into question political fear as an explanation for overreporting of political trust. Political Psychology. No. 5: 1105–1121. DOI: 10.1111/pops.12471.

Thornton P.M. (2011). Retrofitting the steel frame: From mobilizing the masses to surveying the public. In: S. Heilmann, E. Perry (eds). Mao’s Invisible Hand: The Political Foundations of Adaptive Governance in China. 237–268. DOI: 10.1163/9781684171163_009.

Turcsanyi R.Q., Dubravcikova K., Kironska K., Wang T., Iocovozzi J., Gries P., Vasekova V., Chubb A. (2022) Chinese views of the world at the time of the Russia-Ukraine war. Evidence from a March 2022 public opinion survey. Olomouc: Palacky University and CEIAS. URL: https://ceias.eu/wp-content/ uploads/2022/05/CN-poll-report-final_may11.pdf.

Weiss J.C. (2019) How hawkish is the Chinese public? Another look at ”rising nationalism“ and Chinese foreign policy. Journal of Contemporary China. No. 119: 679–695. DOI: 10.1080/10670564.2019.1580427.

Zhang S., Li Y., Hao Y., Zhang Y. (2018) Does public opinion affect air quality? Evidence based on the monthly data of 109 prefecture-level cities in China. Energy Policy. Vol. 116: 299–311. DOI: 10.1016/j. enpol.2018.02.025.

Zhang Y. (2004) Public Opinion Without a Public? State Democracy, Middle-Class Consumerism and Opinion Surveys in Post-Mao China. Southern Review: Communication, Politics & Culture. No. 2: 4–21.

Zhao T., Jin C., Zhai X. (2022) The Evolution and Development of Public Opinion Analysis in China – From the Perspective of Bibliometric Analysis. In: X. Shi, G. Bohacs, Y. Ma, D. Gong, X. Shang (eds). Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Logistics, Informatics and Service Sciences. Singapore: Springer: 401–414.

Zhou Z. (2018) China’s Death Penalty Reforms and Trials under the Influence of Public Opinion. Zeitschrift für die gesamte Strafrechtswissenschaft. No. 2: 582–604. DOI: 10.1515/zstw-2018-0023.

Zhu J.H. (1988) Public opinion polling in China: A descriptive review. Gazette. Vol. 41. No. 2: 127–138. DOI: 10.1177/001654928804100204.

张志明. 中国共产党与中国民主政治. 北京: 五洲传播出版社, 2007. [Zhang Zhiming. (2007) The Chinese Communist Party and Chinese Democratic Politics. Beijing: China Intercontinental Press. (In Chinese)]

张荣臣. 中国共产党的组织与机制. 北京: 五洲传播出版社, 2007. [Zhang Rongchen. (2007) Organization and Mechanism of the Chinese Communist Party. Beijing: China Intercontinental Press. (In Chinese)]

Content No 3, 2023